The World Bank has issued a concerning projection for Nigeria’s economic future, forecasting a 3.6 percentage point increase in the country’s poverty rate by 2027. The warning is part of the newly released Africa’s Pulse report, unveiled during the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, D.C.

 

Despite slight improvements in Nigeria’s non-oil sectors toward the end of 2024, the report highlights that persistent structural challenges—such as the nation’s over dependence on natural resources and overall economic fragility—are expected to hamper meaningful progress in poverty alleviation.

 

Taste the Goodness: EL Blends All-Natural Cold-Pressed Juices

According to the World Bank, resource-rich and fragile economies in Sub-Saharan Africa—including Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—are likely to experience worsening poverty, in contrast to non-resource-rich countries that are expected to see quicker gains in poverty reduction.

 

“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.

 

The report underscores the fact that Sub-Saharan Africa remains the region most burdened by extreme poverty. In 2024, the region accounted for 80% of the world’s 695 million extreme poor, with over half residing in just four countries—Nigeria being one of them.

 

In comparison, South Asia holds 8% of the global extreme poor, East Asia and the Pacific 2%, the Middle East and North Africa 5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean 3%.

 

The World Bank attributes the persistent poverty in resource-rich nations to a combination of low oil prices and weak fiscal systems. Meanwhile, non-resource-dependent economies are capitalizing on strong agricultural commodity prices to drive relatively robust growth—even among ongoing fiscal challenges.

 

“This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries,” the report noted.

 

To reverse the trend, the World Bank is urging Nigeria and similar economies to strengthen fiscal governance, improve budgetary management, and build a stronger, more transparent fiscal contract between governments and citizens.

 

The message is clear: without strategic reforms and diversified economic growth, Nigeria risks deeper socioeconomic instability in the years ahead.