The internal strife plaguing the Lagos State APC ahead of the July 2025 LG/LCDA elections is not merely a party issue—it is a democratic emergency in Nigeria’s most influential state. The combination of elite imposition, centralized primaries, and voter apathy creates a dangerous cocktail that could ultimately undermine governance, legitimacy, and political stability.
1. Subversion of Internal Democracy
The persistent use of “Bàba sô pe” politics—where godfathers and power brokers impose candidates—represents a betrayal of the foundational principles of party democracy. By ignoring the grassroots, the APC risks turning elections into rituals devoid of real choice. This undermines public faith not just in the party but in the electoral process itself.
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2. Risk to APC’s Dominance
While APC currently holds a near-total grip on Lagos politics, unchecked imposition and internal betrayal could cause a voter backlash. Youth-led movements, disenfranchised incumbents, and spurned aspirants could align with opposition forces, even if just to register protest votes. The experience in Zamfara (2019) where the APC lost everything due to internal procedural violations is a cautionary tale.
3. Voter Apathy Deepens
Lagos’ consistent voter apathy—especially at local levels—stems largely from the perception of predetermined outcomes. When citizens believe their votes don’t count, they stay home. The low turnout weakens the mandate of local officials, making councils unaccountable and governance less responsive.
4. Legal Landmines and Electoral Act Violations
The party’s centralization of delegate selection and disregard for Section 84(8) of the Electoral Act is not just unethical; it is illegal. The APC v. Marafa precedent shows that entire slates of candidates can be nullified. This is a legal time bomb. If challenged in court, the APC in Lagos could see its candidates disqualified across multiple councils.
5. Danger to Tinubu’s Political Legacy
President Tinubu, historically seen as the architect of Lagos APC’s dominance, risks being blamed for the party’s democratic decay if his name continues to be used to justify anti-democratic actions. Lagos is his political fortress—any erosion of legitimacy here could weaken his influence nationally.
IMPLICATIONS FOR DEMOCRACY IN NIGERIA
Decentralization Must Be Defended: Local governments are the closest tier to the people. If democratic processes collapse at this level, national democracy becomes hollow.
Institutional Trust is at Stake: If the APC undermines its own constitution and electoral laws, it sends a signal to other parties and institutions that the rules don’t matter.
Opportunity for Reformers: Civil society, youth movements, and disillusioned politicians have a unique opportunity to push for reforms in voter registration, primary transparency, and electoral accountability.
Need for INEC Oversight: LASIEC and other state electoral commissions have been too partisan. Calls will grow for INEC to supervise LG elections, or at least enforce adherence to the Electoral Act.
Conclusion
The Lagos APC crisis is a stress test for Nigerian democracy. What is at stake is not just who wins elections, but whether citizens still believe that elections matter. If Lagos, the heart of Nigeria’s urban and civic life, continues to be a graveyard of voter enthusiasm and internal democracy, it bodes ill for the entire federation.
Oluwole Solanke (Phd, FCIB)
